N
NOSTRABOTUSLIVE DRY RUN
0 detected 0 filled

Pipeline • Kanban • ROI USD Model • No bps

20Hz detection paper USD
WATCHING57
Pair 1 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 2 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 3 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 4 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 5 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 6 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 7 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 8 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 9 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 10 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 11 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
Pair 12 EQUIV 0.85+
Arby 426k → 57 approved EQUIV/INVERSE 0.85 conf
+ 45 more • real pairs from Arby v2_markets 426k
EDGE ROI5
SIZING USD5
PLACING_LEG1/25
FILLED PAPER USD5
MANAGING0

STATE MACHINE • ROI USD ACCURATE

IDLE → WATCHING (57 approved) → EDGE_DETECTED (MIN_GROSS_ROI 2% / 0.02, MIN_NET_ROI 1% / 0.01, MIN_PROFIT_USD $0.01, cost=1-diff, profit=diff, gross_roi=diff/cost, fee worst=max(Kalshi 7% * (1-win_leg), Poly 2% * (1-win_leg)), net_worst=diff-fee_worst, roi_net_worst=net_worst/cost) → SIZING ($10 cost USD target, units=10/cost, VWAP slippage slip_k+slip_p reduces diff) → PLACING_LEG1/LEG2 concurrent [Kalshi direct 18ms + Poly via WG 84ms+15ms router 54.170.20.163] → FILLED/PARTIAL/FAILED → MANAGING → EXITING (convergence/stop-loss/resolution) → CLOSED All values USD, not bps. Example $0.62 vs $0.58: diff $0.04 cost $0.96 gross ROI 4.17% fee worst $0.0266 Kalshi 7% of $0.38 win, Poly $0.0116 2% of $0.58, worst $0.0266 net $0.0134 ROI net worst 1.40% → passes MIN_NET_ROI 1% threshold.
Why not bps? .04 diff = 400bps but cost $0.96, ROI 4.17%, at $0.02 vs $0.50 diff $0.48 = 4800bps absolute but cost $0.52 ROI 92.3% net 88%. ROI reflects true capital efficiency in USD terms (Kalshi & Poly both USD). bps understated extreme edges.